Bitcoin price holds near $79K as cycle drawdowns narrow

Bitcoin traded near $79,200 on Sept. 9 after recovering sharply from its June low, supporting Wintermute’s broader argument that the current downturn has been shallower than the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Summary Bitcoin traded near $79,200 on September 9, roughly 37% below its October 2025 record high. Wintermute said Bitcoin reached a roughly 50% cycle drawdown versus 77% and 83% historically recorded. The current price is no longer 50% below the peak after August’s recovery rally unfolded. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $987 million during their third consecutive positive week recently. August payrolls rose 162,000 while unemployment remained at 4.1% ahead of September’s Fed meeting decision. The market maker said Bitcoin was about 50% below its peak roughly 340 days after the cycle high. It compared that decline with losses exceeding 75% at the same stage of the previous two major bear markets. However, the 50% figure requires context. Bitcoin’s current price is not 50% below its record. It describes the approximate maximum drawdown reached during the current cycle, or a selected point in Wintermute’s cycle comparison. You might also like: Bitcoin price risks $76K drop as $78K support weakens At $79,200, Bitcoin was approximately 37% below the record above $125,600 reached in October 2025. The difference matters when assessing whether the market is still near capitulation or has already moved into a recovery phase. Bitcoin’s current drawdown is smaller than 50% Wintermute’s Sept. 7 update said Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms had become progressively shallower. It cited declines of about 83% in the 2018 bear market, 77% in 2022 and roughly 50% during the current cycle. Independent price data support the broad direction of that comparison. Bitcoin fell approximately 52.6% from its October 2025 record at the June 2026 trough, according to Hashrate Index’s historical analysis. Bitcoin then closed July at $63,577, leaving it about 48.9% below the peak. Its August rally reduced the drawdown further as the price closed the month above $78,000. The calculation based on the current price is straightforward. Bitcoin’s verified October 2025 record was approximately $125,653. A price of $79,200 represents a decline of about 36.97%, rounded to 37%. Wintermute’s statement that BTC “sits 50% below peak” therefore does not describe the Sept. 9 spot price. The figure is better understood as the deepest drawdown reached earlier in the cycle or as a chart observation based on a different cutoff date.