Busier, Not Richer: Robinhood, Coinbase and Circle in Q3

Key Takeaways Robinhood event-contract revenue rose $146M; crypto fell $148M Coinbase kept $35M less USDC revenue after rewards Without ARC presale, Circle’s revenue fell 8% USDC volume rose 49%; reserve income fell 8% Robinhood’s October 27 results, Coinbase’s October 29 earnings presentation and Circle’s November 4 release put numbers on that trade-off, although none of the three reports profit by product line. The comparisons below set each new revenue line against the costs the companies do disclose: exchange fees, customer rewards and payments to distribution partners. Event contracts replaced crypto trading with more trading Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% from a year earlier. Inside that total, cryptocurrency revenue fell from $268 million to $120 million, while event-contract revenue rose from $27 million to $173 million, according to its revenue breakdown filed with the SEC. Both lines sit within transaction-based revenue, so the gap left by crypto trading was filled by trading on sports results, elections and other events. Coindoo’s coverage of Robinhood’s prediction-market venues showed event contracts overtaking crypto revenue in the second quarter. The third quarter adds a less flattering detail: what each contract earns. Robinhood event contracts, quarter on quarter Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Revenue $156M $173M Contracts traded 13.6B 16.4B Revenue per contract ≈1.15¢ ≈1.05¢ Revenue per contract calculated from Robinhood’s reported revenue and contract counts. Contract volume grew roughly twice as fast as the revenue it produced, so each contract brought in less. The figure is an average across all contracts and venues, and Robinhood does not break out pricing by venue. Still, a business paid per contract only grows revenue as fast as volume if that average holds. Both Robinhood and Coinbase are now moving closer to the exchange side of the trade to keep more of each contract. Robinhood says Rothera, its joint venture with Susquehanna, passed $100 million in annualized revenue in its first full quarter, and it lists Rothera-related expenses among the drivers of a 16% rise in operating expenses. It also discloses that it neither wholly owns nor operationally controls the venture. Coinbase, whose prediction business has passed $200 million in annualized revenue, said that growth raised the exchange fees within its transaction expenses, which reached 17% of net revenue. Chief executive Brian Armstrong said the company’s new CFTC approval to list its own contracts should improve those economics. Event contracts also carry a legal risk that Robinhood spells out in its results. Enforcement actions, litigation or changes in federal or state law could stop it from offering them, and it has previously dropped certain new contracts because of actual or threatened state enforcement. Record revenue did not lift profit either: operating expenses grew faster than revenue, and net income fell 14% to $476 million.